System Dynamics - Optional Work Index

SYSTEM DYNAMICS Feedback Loop Simulation - Stocks, Flows & Reinforcing Loops

The transition to optional work is a complex adaptive system - not a linear progression. This simulation models the five OWI stocks with their reinforcing (R) and balancing (B) feedback loops using Euler integration over a 20-year horizon. Adjust the parameters to test how sensitive the prediction is to initial conditions and loop strengths.

Simulation Parameters - Adjust Loop Strengths

Each gain controls how strongly a feedback loop operates; each delay sets how long the link takes to act. Every R and B loop is fully closed - it returns to its own inflow through delayed pipeline stocks - so the model produces real feedback dynamics (overshoot, lag, oscillation) rather than one-way drift. Euler integration, monthly steps, over 20 years from January 2024.

Initial Conditions (from live data)

AI Capability Stock (0–100) Robotics Deployment Stock (0–100) Economic Abundance Stock (0–100) Labor Displacement Stock (0–100) Wealth Distribution Stock (0–100)

Reinforcing Loop Strengths

R1: AI investment multiplier

0.08

Rate at which AI capability drives further AI investment (0=none, 0.3=aggressive compounding) R2: Productivity→abundance rate

0.05

How fast productivity gains translate to accessible abundance R3: Displacement→policy pressure

0.04

How fast labor displacement generates UBI/redistribution pressure R4: Robot cost curve decline rate

0.06

Annual % cost reduction per doubling of robot deployment (Moore's Law analog)

Balancing Loop Strengths

B1: Regulatory friction rate

0.03

How strongly displacement triggers regulation slowing AI/robot adoption B2: Inequality resistance rate

0.02

How strongly wealth concentration resists redistribution mechanisms B3: Automation saturation ceiling

0.85

Fraction of physically automatable jobs - limits robotics stock growth

Feedback Delays (years)

Investment delay (R1/R2)

1.5

Years for AI capability and abundance to convert into deployed investment Productivity to abundance delay (R2)

Years for productivity gains to diffuse into accessible abundance Policy / UBI delay (R3)

Years for displacement to translate into enacted redistribution Regulatory friction delay (B1)

Years for displacement to translate into adopted regulation Robot cost-curve delay (R4)

Years for cumulative deployment to lower robot cost

Couplings & Rates

Unvalidated structural coefficients. Defaults are placeholders, not derived from data.

Reinvestment rate (R2: abundance to AI investment)

0.6

How much accessible abundance is reinvested into AI investment capacity UBI to abundance share (R3)

0.5

Share of UBI/policy pressure that raises the abundance floor R3 return: UBI to automation tolerance

0.04

How strongly the UBI cushion enables continued displacement. Set 0 to make R3 non-reinforcing. Contested causal direction. AI to robotics cross-coupling

0.05

How strongly AI capability lifts robotics deployment

Displacement Elasticities

Displacement per unit AI

0.03

Labor displacement created per unit of AI capability Displacement per unit robotics

0.04

Labor displacement created per unit of robotics Abundance offset on displacement

0.01

How much abundance dampens the displacement rate

Drag Splits

B1 drag share to AI

0.5

Share of regulatory drag that hits AI capability B1 drag share to robotics

0.3

Share of regulatory drag that hits robotics B2 drag share to abundance

0.4

Share of inequality drag that hits abundance B2 drag share to wealth

0.6

Share of inequality drag that hits wealth distribution

Scenario Controls

Time Horizon (years) 20 years from Jan 2024 External shock at year: none Simulates an AGI breakthrough or major disruption at the selected year (0 = no shock)

20-Year OWI Trajectory - System Dynamics Projection

Predicted 2034 OWI: -

Predicted 2044 OWI: -

Reaches 100 at: -

Dominant loop: -

Feedback Loop Architecture

Reinforcing Loops (accelerate change)

R1 AI Capability → Investment → AI Capability

More capable AI attracts more capital which builds more capable AI

R2 Productivity Gains → Abundance → Reduced Work Necessity

AI output surplus lowers the cost of living, reducing dependence on labor income

R3 Labor Displacement → Policy Pressure → UBI → Abundance

Automation unemployment forces redistribution mechanisms into existence

R4 Robot Deployment → Cost Reduction → More Deployment

Scale drives manufacturing cost curves down - same dynamic as semiconductors

Balancing Loops (resist change)

B1 Automation Unemployment → Political Resistance → Regulatory Friction

High displacement rates trigger regulatory backlash that slows adoption

B2 Wealth Concentration → Inequality → Social Friction

Productivity gains captured by capital owners reduce political will for redistribution

B3 Robot Deployment → Labor Substitution Saturation

Once physically automatable jobs are replaced, further deployment slows

Loop Dominance Analysis

Which feedback loops are dominant under current parameters? Dominant loops determine whether the system accelerates, stabilises, or oscillates. This updates live as you adjust parameters above.